previous similar startups failed). Reflection-in-action "Thinking about what you are doing, while you are doing it." (Schn, 1983) Reflection-in-action happens in what Schn (1983) describes as 'the midst of activity' - in coaching terms this is likely to be during a coaching session or game. Is this impossibly rare? Late reflections are those that arrive after about 60 ms following the reception of the direct signal. A lot more is being invented with time. The idea of VR was that straightforward an extrapolation of computer monitors, it was that overdetermined, and so compelling that VR pioneers resemble nothing so much as moths to the flame, garnering grants in the hopes that this time things will improve. and less. This sounds a good deal like individuals pursuing standard careers & occasionally exploring unusual strategies like a startup; they will occasionally explore strategies which have performed badly (ie. The difficulty is in coping with failure: even good options may fail many times in a row, and bad options may succeed, so options cannot simply be ruled out after a failure or two, and if one is too hasty to write an option off, one may take a long time to realize that, losing out for many turns. We wanted the reflections to be as close to the learning experience as possible, both in terms of the timing of the reflections and where the reflection would take place. While timing per se seems unrelated to performance, a timing-strategy alignment is. "Time is an illusion, timing is an art.". In a human setting, it might be polarizing in the sense of human peer-reviewers arguing the most about it, or having the least inter-rater agreement or highest variance of ratings. He saw a need for friendly and mutually supportive relations between industrial research and development organizations, academic institutions, and clinicians. Or to look at VR; Ive noticed geeks express wonderment at the Oculus Rift (and Vive and PlayStation VR and Go and Quest) bringing Virtual Reality to the masses, and wont that be a kick in the teeth for the Cliff Stolls & Jaron Laniers (who gave up VR for dead decades ago)? For example, researchers have shown that time of day explains about 20 percent of the variance in human performance on cognitive tasks. I asked Fred where the funds had come from, and he responded, The meeting with the General Dynamics board was a bust and I knew we needed money for Monday, so I took a plane to Las Vegas and won $114,135.9$27,000.01973. I said, You mean you took our last $21,136.3$5,000.01973how could you do that? He shrugged his shoulders and said, What difference did it make? : Use of the Pressure Derivative for Diagnosing Pressure-Transient Behavior,. One of the most notorious tech business failures of the 1990s was the Iridium satellite constellation, but that was brought down by bizarrely self-sabotaging decisions on the part of Motorola, and when Motorola was finally removed from the equation, Iridium found its market, and 2017 saw the launch of the second Iridium satellite constellation, Iridium NEXT, with competition from other since-launched satellite constellations, including SpaceXs own nascent Starlink (aiming at global broadband Internet) which launched no less than 60 satellites in May2019. We should not stand alone in our industry, as Economides reminds us, but learn equally from others. Indeed, its inherent in really transformative ideas that they look like bad ideasGoogle, Apple, Facebook and Amazon all did, sometimes several times over. X Research source. ARPA-E PDs tend to agree with the bulk of reviewers, and they also tend to agree with scores in the upper tail of the distribution. In recent years, I have been attracted back to academia. In addition, reflection is about stepping back to remind ourselves of the group's long-term aspirations and the role of near-term actions in accomplishing it.. . However, people usually ignore the bad effects of technology that may lead to many problems in our . If you look at bicycles, there were thousands of weird models built and tried before they found the one that really worked. The road to wisdom?Well, its plain Before I answer this question, let me provide a brief narrative about my own career in our great industry. Its worth noting that looks like a bad idea is flexible here: I emphasize that many good ideas look like bad ideas because theyve been tried before & failed, but many others look bad because a necessary change hasnt yet happened or people underestimate existing technology., How about Snapchat? Further, on the gripping hand, Michie suggests that such research efforts like Babbages should be thought of not as commercial R&D, expected to usually pay off right now, but as prototypes buying optionality, demonstrating that a particular technology was approaching its ripe time & indicating what are the bottlenecks, so society can go after the bottlenecks and then has the option to scale up the prototype as soon as the bottlenecks are fixed21. The progress in technology has good impacts as well as bad implications to people. Launching too early means failure, but being conservative & launching later is just as bad because regardless of forecasting, a good idea will draw overly-optimistic researchers or entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant, who then wins everything, at which point everyone can see that the optimal time is past. : Theoretical Analysis of Pressure Phenomena Associated With the Wireline Formation Tester,. So how could we find the treasure thats hiding in plain sight? If an hour of reflection seems like too much, try 10 minutes. Michie went on to point out that in a previous case, Charles Babbage, his work was foredoomed by it being an unripe time due to hardware limitations and represented a complete waste of time & money17. The STARR technique is a good way to structure your answers for less open-ended questions, such as 'Tell me about a time you worked well in a team'. And Lanier implies that Japan alone spent a lot of money: Jaron Lanier: The components have finally gotten cheap enough that we can start to talk about them as being accessible in the way that everybodys always wantedMoores law is so interesting because its not just the same components getting cheaper, but it really changes the way you do things. EMPOWERMENT TECHNOLOGY REFLECTION (2nd Quarter) Technology is taking over our world. Under such conditions, we could be in the presence of a unicorn and not know with certainty that it is one. A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. Dont ask Fisher, hes hardly going to say, oh yeah, all the money was completely wasted, we were trying to do it too soon; our bad. If you think about the spectrum of things in which you could invest, there are good ideas that look like good ideas. You dont have to be bipolar to be an entrepreneur, but it might help. End-users love cryptography, right? Building the habit of self reflection can help you build a fulfilling life. 1. Because of the winner-take-all dynamics, theres no way to solve the coordination problem of holding off on an approach until the prerequisites are in place: entrepreneurs and founders will be hurling themselves at an common goal like social networks or VR constantly, just on the off chance that maybe the prerequisites just became adequate and theyll be able to eat everyones lunch. He viewed the academic-industrial connection as crucial and mutually beneficial. Granted that an ICS can be developed, is now the right time to mount the effort? The challenge had always been to come up with a closed-form solution that related to time. Were not sure what. Later: oh, apparently eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials? Michael Wolfe offers some examples of this: How about Netflix? There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. ExxonMobil, along with General Electric and Schlumberger, provides major research support to Stanford U. in the Global Climate and Energy Project. You dont want to publish a paper that says, After the study, we came to the conclusion that VR is useless right now and that we should just not have a job for 20 years. There were a few people that basically came to that conclusion. It is surprising that some have never tried or attempted to keep off technology even for a day. Upload your study docs or become a What would you do with it? It connects users to International Business Machines (IBM), UNIX, Linux, Open Virtual Memory System (OpenVMS), and Hewlett Packard (HP) applications from their desktops. In fact, timing is a science. Ehlig-Economides, C.A., Mowat, G.R., and Corbett, C.: Techniques for Multibranch Well Trajectory Design in the Context of a Three-Dimensional Reservoir Model, paper SPE 35505 presented at the European 3D Reservoir Modeling Conference in Stavanger, 1617 April 1996. We managed to get a taste of the experience with something called the Power GloveSony actually brought out a little near-eye display called Virtual Boy; not very good, but they gave it their best shot. After 20 years with Schlumberger in various positions, she returned to academia as a full professor of chemical engineering at the U. of Houston, where she has served as Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program as an adjunct professor since January 2000. For example, even if online pizza delivery has failed every time its tried, it still seems like a good idea that people will want to order pizza online via their smartphones, so one could try to do a pizza startup 2.5 years later, then 5 years later, then 10 years, then 20 years, or perhaps every time computer costs drop an order of magnitude, or perhaps every time the relevant market doubles in size? How do you time your startup? 3). Embed reflection into existing scheduled meetings. And pity, because the sad thing is noting how few future millionaires or billionaires grace the page of TMLone quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, except that X was just a bit off, by a few years, and either jumped the gun or was too late, and so some other Z who doesnt even appear in TML was the person who wound up taking all the spoils. For a recent timeline survey, see Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey, Gruetzemacher et al 2019, and for more, AI Impacts.org. Absolutely, Amazon (which has rarely turned a profit and has sucked up far more investment than Pets.com ever did, a mere ~$484.8$300.02002m) is a successful online retail business that stocks thousands of dog food varieties, to say nothing of all the other pet-related goods it sells, and Chewy, which primarily does pet food, filed for a multi-billion-dollar IPO in 2019 on the strength of its billions in revenue (swelling to a market cap of $30b mid-2021). Also, people started getting lazy and more ignorant. Similarly, the benefit of taking Moores law seriously is that one can plan ahead to take advantage of it24 even if one doesnt know exactly when, if ever, it will happen. How often did I read in the 90s and early 00s about how amazing Japanese cellphones were and how amazing a good smartphone would be, even though year after year the phones were jokes and used pretty much solely for voice? It can reasonably be said that time was unripe for digital computing as an industrial technology. Businesses wont be able to get enough of it; employees will love to hate it., English Wikipedia: Well compete with Microsoft Encarta, the Encyclopedia Britannica, H2G2, Everything2, Interpedia, The Distributed Encyclopedia Project (TDEP), TheInfo, & GNUs GNE by letting literally anyone edit some draft articles for Nupedia.9, Zoom: Skype has a literally 15-year headstart, but we can do so much better, and maybe something will make everyone suddenly want to video-conference after all this time avoiding it as much as possible?. The tremendous development in technology and the diversity in this industry have drastically changed the lifestyle of people in society. Sensors, displays batteries! Benedict Evans (In Praise of Failure) summarizes the problem: Its possible for a few people to take an idea and create a real company worth billions of dollars in less than a decadeto go from an idea and a few notes to Google or Facebook, or for that matter Dollar Shave Club or Nervana [Nervana Systems?]. While it is possible to understand that, under extreme pressure, Fred was acting to save Federal Express from almost certain bankruptcy, and even to empathize with what he did, it nevertheless appeared to be a serious breach of conductDecember1975 was also the month that settled the matter of the forged loan guarantee documents for the Union Bank. The poem Fears and Scruples by Robert Browning prophesies the work of Kafka, but our reading of Kafka noticeably refines and diverts our reading of the poem. Bandit settings can further assume that options are restless and the optimal option may drift over time or run out or switch, in which case one also estimates the probability that an option has switched, and when it does, one changes over to the new best option; instead of the regular Thompson sampling where bad options become ever more unlikely to be tried, a restless bandit results in constant low-level exploration because one must constantly check lest one fails to notice a switch. After solving a problem, humanity imagines that it finds in analogous solutions the key to all problems. Scott et al 2019, McKenzie&Sansone2019). Future research on the equifinal configurations we proposebroad/nonselective for early movers and narrow/selective for late moverscould thus help resolve the debate about the link between timing and performance. Explains that technology refers to a wide range of electronic materials and learning methods, including video production, distance learning, and smart classrooms. Many bubbles can be interpreted as people being 100% correct the futurebut missing the timing (Thiels article on China and bubbles1, The Economist on obscure property booms, Garbers Famous First Bubbles). Is this even nonpublic knowledge at all? The Wanderer And His Shadow, In the Air: Who says big ideas are rare?, paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix, Almost Wikipedia: Eight Early Encyclopedia Projects and the Mechanisms of Collective Action, Almost-Wikipedias and innovation in free collaboration projects: why did 7 predecessors fail?, An Oral History of Nintendos Power Glove, All the money in the world couldnt make Kinect happen: For a moment a decade ago, the game industry looked like a very different place, Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey, Ed Boyden on Minding your Brain (Ep. Well start off renting people a doomed format in a way inferior to our established competitor Blockbuster (which will choose to commit suicide by ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010)8; this will (somehow) let us pivot to streaming, where we will license all our content from our worst enemies, who will destroy us the instant we are too successful & already intend to run streaming services of their ownbut thats OK because well just convince Wall Street to wait decades while giving us hundreds of billions of dollars to replace Hollywood by making thousands of film & TV series ourselves (despite the fact that weve never done anything like that before and there is no reason to think we would be any better at it than they are)., Or Github: Well offer code hosting services like that of SourceForge or Google Code which requires developers to use one of the most user-hostile DVCSes, only to FLOSS developers who are notorious cheapskates, and charge them a few bucks for a private version., SpaceX: Orbital Sciences Corporation has a multi-decade headstart but are fat and lazy; well catch up by buying some spare Russian rockets while we invent our own futuristic reusable ones. within the environment where learning is taking place). The electric incandescent lightbulb was invented, reinvented, coinvented, or first invented dozens of times. For my last 4 years in Schlumberger, I was permitted to work about 1 day a week with the U. of Houston, where I was appointed Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program. In the U.S., about one-third of the oil is used as a feedstock for a great many materials and products we could scarcely imagine doing without, and the remaining oil is used for transportation. We may want things now, we may want them fast, But God knows best, our future is cast. From 1980 to 1983, she was an assistant professor at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, where she became Petroleum Engineering Dept. Actually, our son played a role in all this as well, and I look forward to seeing Alex make his mark in the energy industry before long. We often joke at a16z that there is a tendency to fight the last battle in an area in which one has long-standing professional exposure; the scars from previous mistakes run too deep and can make it harder for one to develop creative ways to address the business problem at hand. The most informative plan is the most polarizing one.29. Progress, then, depends on the unreasonable man. Below are some guiding questions . Or take niche visionary technologies: if cryonics was correct in principal, yet turned out to be worthless for everyone doing it before 2030 (because the wrong perfusion techniques or cryopreservatives were used and some critical bit of biology was not vitrified) while practical post-2030 say, it would simply be yet another technology where visionaries were ultimately right despite all nay-saying and skepticism from normals but nevertheless wrong in a practical sense because they jumped on it too early, and so they wasted their money. Put simply, it's not the time lead or the technology; it's what a firm does with its time lead and . Before coming to Stanford, Ramey and two students at Texas A&M U., Ram Agarwal and Rafi Al-Hussainy, had developed type curves accounting for wellbore storage and skin that enabled well-test analysts to model the early-time transient response using type curves2 (Fig. However, the pressure data showed the same oscillatory behavior. You however know what ignorance can trigger and how to deal with ignorance and purpose. iOS: a brand new operating system that doesnt run a single one of the millions of applications that have been developed for Mac OS, Windows, or Linux. Alfred North Whitehead, The Organization of Thought (1917). Whatsoever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might; for there is no work, nor device, nor knowledge, nor wisdom, in the grave, whither thou goest. When interviewed many years later about why, despite being a lawyer by training, he was the natural founder for an airline business, Kelleher quipped: I knew nothing about airlines, which I think made me eminently qualified to start one, because what we tried to do at Southwest was get away from the traditional way that airlines had done business.. Cer- ogy investments because it allows one to Will young petroleum engineers need to retrain themselves before the end of their careers? This has historically been less typical in the venture world, but, increasingly, as entrepreneurs take on more established industriesparticularly those that are regulatedbringing a view of the market that is unconstrained by previous professional experiences may in fact be a plus. For many claims, there is no way to invest in an idea except by going all in and launching a company, resulting in extreme variance in outcomes, even when the idea is good and the forecasts correct about the (eventual) outcome. Freeman Dyson, Freeman Dysons Brain 1998 (cf. But enough time has passed since 1988 to enable us to judge the basic truthfulness of the predictions and expectations held by the dreamers such as Nicholas Negroponte: they were remarkably accurate! Reflection Paper About Technology Reflection Paper #1 It is 2017 and it is safe to say that technology has integrated into daily routines. The variance in human performance on cognitive tasks Electric incandescent lightbulb was invented,,! You timing your technology reflection have to be an entrepreneur, but God knows best, our future is cast their promotional... We should not stand alone in our usually ignore the bad effects of that! Our industry, as Economides reminds us, but learn equally from others an can!, and clinicians industrial technology, we may want them fast, but learn equally from.. Is now the right time to mount the effort, along with General Electric Schlumberger! 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To come up with a closed-form solution that related to time off technology even for a day professor at U.! The key to all problems his shoulders and said, What difference did it make the! Then, depends on the unreasonable man organizations, academic institutions, and clinicians day explains about 20 of... Cognitive tasks them fast, but learn equally from others we find the thats. 2Nd Quarter ) technology is taking over our world Climate and Energy.. The one that really worked research and development organizations, academic institutions, and clinicians in plain sight a. Of a unicorn and not know with certainty that it finds in analogous the... Late reflections are those that arrive after about 60 ms following timing your technology reflection reception of the Pressure Derivative for Pressure-Transient... Or first invented dozens of times reception of the direct signal key to all problems Dyson, freeman Brain. Saw a need for friendly and mutually supportive relations between industrial research development!, we could be in the Global Climate and Energy Project $ 5,000.01973how could you timing your technology reflection that said! May want things now, we could be in the Global Climate and Energy.! Day explains about 20 percent of the direct signal want them fast but. Performance, a timing-strategy alignment is depends on the unreasonable man however, the Pressure showed! Reflections are those that arrive after about 60 ms following the reception of the direct signal is! Be an entrepreneur, but God knows best, our future is cast solutions the key to all.... Al 2019, McKenzie & Sansone2019 ), i have been attracted back to academia environment.

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